Packers fantasy football outlook: Week 1 vs. Vikings

The Green Bay Packers will return to the gridiron Sunday and fantasy football will come back as well. Everyone’s favorite maddening sports game will consume out hearts and minds this fall and despite the lineup mistakes and the anxiety of who to start or sit, we wouldn’t have it any other way.

Green Bay opens its season with a road matchup against Minnesota. It is obviously a crucial game for the Packers, but if you have any Green Bay players on your fantasy team it probably means plenty to you as well.

So, who should you start? Which Green Bay running back should you focus on? We are here to help. Each week during the regular season we’ll give our fantasy advice for Packers and their opponent.

Players are graded on a 1-5 scale of football emojis, from “don’t even think about starting him” (?) to “you’re a fool if you bench this guy” (?????).

GREEN BAY PACKERS

QB Aaron Rodgers:  ??

It is certainly never a bad idea to start Aaron Rodgers but in terms of fantasy there are better options. Of course, it depends on the size of your league, but there are other signal callers that are primed to put up better stats. A quick scan around the internet shows Rodgers is ranked as around the middle to bottom half of QBs for Week 1. Take that for what it’s worth, but also considering it looks like the Pack will focus on the run game more this season (see: offseason moves, or lack thereof) plus Minnesota giving up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2019, allowing just 14.1 fantasy points per game, and Rodgers is a tough start. To make matters worse, Rodgers threw for multiple scores in just two of his final eight regular-season games last year. He’s tossed 2+ touchdowns against the Vikings just twice since 2016.

RB Aaron Jones: ????

Jones is ranked all over the place when it comes to Week 1 running back rankings, so let’s just keep it simple: Start him. Jones had a breakout season in 2019 with 1,084 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns – three of those scores coming against Minnesota. There’s plenty of chatter about sharing duties with Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon, but let’s hold off on that for now. Jones handled 67% of the carries and 57% of the targets among Green Bay running backs in 2019. Coming off a 13-win season and a team expected to be even more dedicated to the ground game, nothing should drastically change in the backfield.

RB A.J. Dillon: ?

Beware of the rookie running back. Other than Oakland’s Josh Jacobs, it was a rough fantasy season for first-year backs last season, as we watched Chicago’s David Montgomery and Los Angeles Rams’ Darrell Henderson take up smaller roles than expected. Long term, Dillon, who weights almost 40 pounds more than Jones, could take away some of Jones’ touches inside the 10-yard line, which obviously invokes some fantasy intrigue. But short term? Let’s sit him for now. Plus, he’s listed as the third-team back currently. With his massive legs, though, don’t be surprised if he turns into a goal-line touchdown vulture.

WR Davante Adams: ?????

Under no circumstances should you not start Davante Adams. The Fresno State product is the clear No. 1 option for Rodgers. Adams has tallied 100+ receiving yards and/or a touchdown in six straight matchups against Minnesota, dating back to 2016. And this year, the Vikings secondary is suspect, at best. Mike Hughes, Holton Hill, Jeff Gladney, Cameron Dantzler, Kris Boyd and Harrison Hand are listed as Minnesota’s six cornerbacks on the roster. That’s a group with a combined nine starts in the NFL. Adams should feast.

WR Allen Lazard: ?

Rodgers likes to target his favorites when facing a tough defense like Minnesota. In two games against the Vikings last season, Rodgers connected with Adams for a combined 20 receptions. All other wide receivers totaled 14. Even against the unproven Vikings secondary, Lazard should probably stay on your bench for now.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: ?

The fifth-round pick has had his moments in two years – he’s posted three games with 100+ yards. He had 21 catches for 416 yards in Green Bay’s first seven games in 2019, including 133 yards (on two catches) against Oakland on Oct. 20 … and then had five receptions for 36 yards the rest of the way as he fell out of favor. He’s back in good graces, it seems, as the team’s third wide receiver and is being talked up by Davante Adams. If you play in a league which starts three (or more) receivers, maybe you take a chance hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.

TE Marcedes Lewis:

Yes, that’s right, we’ve broken our own rule in Week 1 and issued 0 footballs. We’re not sure what to make of Green Bay’s situation at tight end other than knowing Matt LaFleur loves to use them. The 36-year-old Lewis, who had 15 catches in 2019, is listed as Green Bay’s starter. The Packers also have rookie Josiah Deguara, Jace Sternberger and Robert Tonyan. Tonyan or Sternberger have the best odds of breaking out in catches among the Packers’ tight ends, but for now stay far, far away.

Packers D/ST: ???

Green Bay ranked 23rd against the run last season, and the Packers didn’t do much to address the interior defensive line in the offseason. But while Cook may torch the green and gold on the ground, the Packers pass rush should have Cousins’ head on a swivel. Green Bay has sacked Cousins 10 times while forcing four interceptions in four matchups since he signed with Minnesota. Plus, the Vikings haven’t scored more than 30+ points against Green Bay’s defense since 2013. There are better options out there, but starting the Packers defense is certainly not out of the question. Probably a low ceiling here, but also a high floor.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

QB Kirk Cousins: ??

Cousins looked like he’d make life difficult for the Packers defense for years to come when he tossed seven touchdowns and one interception in two 2018 matchups. But the Packers gave it back to Cousins last season. Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith and the rest of the Green Bay defense sacked him a combined six times as he threw for two scores and three interceptions over the pair of matchups in 2019. Not to mention — with the departure of Stefon Diggs, we’re not sure what the Vikings’ passing attack or offense (it might be run heavy) — will look like this fall.

RB Dalvin Cook: ????

As expected, this is the matchup we fear the most for the Packers. Green Bay’s 2019 campaign ended in the NFC championship after San Francisco rushed 42 times for 284 yards (6.8 average) en route to a 37-20 win. Cook has racked up at least 75 total yards in all three games against Green Bay and has scored twice. He went off for 191 total yards and a score in their last meeting Sept. 15. Start him.

WR Adam Thielen: ????

Green Bay held Thielen to no catches on four targets back in December. However, unfortunately for Packers fans, that should prove to be more of a mirage than a trend. He was battling a hamstring injury in that game. When healthy, Thielen has dominated the Packers secondary. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2016, Thielen has registered 75+ receiving yards in five of seven matchups against the Packers. And with Diggs now in Buffalo, Thielen’s role should do nothing but increase. The Minnesota native has been targeted 10+ times in nine games since Cousins took over under center for the Vikings in 2018. Thielen is averaging 101.7 receiving yards in those contests and has scored in six of them. A bigger role should serve him well.

WR Olabisi Johnson: ?

Starting the season as Minnesota’s No. 2 receiver behind Thielen, Johnson has the opportunity to carve out a nice role with the purple. However, let’s wait to see just how big of a piece of the pie he gets before starting Johnson.

TE Kyle Rudolph: ?

If your draft strategy was to hold off on selecting a tight end and Rudolph fell into your hands in the later rounds, we’ve got some bad news for you. In two games against Green Bay last year, Rudolph was held to a combined four catches for 16 yards and no scores. In fact, the Rudolph the Red Zone Reindeer hasn’t found the end zone against the Packers since 2016. Oof.

Vikings D/ST: ??

Can Jones do it again? In two games last year, Jones went off for a combined 270 rushing yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota. The Vikings will be susceptible against the run up the middle this fall as Linval Joseph was cut in the offseason and his replacement, Michael Pierce, opted out of the 2020 season. Minnesota will rely on Plan B — Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson up the middle. Plus, Danielle Hunter is starting the season on injured reserve, meaning the Vikings’ pass rush will be a lot easier to deal with for Green Bay’s offensive line. Advantage: Rodgers.