Analysis: As Brazil’s military rolls out the tanks for Independence Day, Bolsonaro tells fans to ‘make a stand’

Along with first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, the president attended a military parade in the capital Brasilia on Wednesday morning, greeting large crowds of supporters as the pair rode in a vintage Rolls-Royce convertible before the beginning of the event.”The Brazilian people today are taking to the streets to celebrate 200 years of independence and eternity freedom. What is at stake is our freedom and our future. The population knows that it is the one that guides our decisions,” Bolsonaro said in an interview with a Brazilian state television channel ahead of the parade.Though Independence Day is supposed to be a nonpartisan national holiday, the president has often referred to it as a key milestone in his re-election campaign, telling supporters to prepare to “give their lives” on that day — an escalation in rhetoric even for the outspoken populist leader.”I call on all of you, on September 7, to take to the streets for the last time … All of you here have sworn to give your life for your freedom. Repeat with me: I swear to give my life for freedom,” Bolsonaro said, as he accepted the Liberal Party’s presidential nomination on July 23.As the race heats up between Bolsonaro and Lula, the incumbent president has frequently made statements undermining the legitimacy of the electoral process among his fans — in what critics fear could set the stage for unrest if Bolsonaro doesn’t win re-election.The president has called for some voters to be filmed at the ballot box (an idea squashed by the Electoral Court) and claimed that the country’s electronic voting system has been compromised in the past and is at risk of fraud now, though there is no record of fraud in Brazilian electronic ballots since they began in 1996. He has also suggested that the Armed Forces should perform a parallel ballot count to verify the result.The military has previously served as observers during elections, along with representatives of political parties and universities. But as Lula pulls ahead in the polls, discussion among supporters of an even more active role by the Brazilian Armed Forces — including calls for a military intervention if Bolsonaro loses — has intensified on social media.”We will not trust the results [if Bolsonaro loses] and will demand the president to call the Armed Forces to intervene. But note that this is not a coup, it is a counter coup,” says Roseno.Brazil’s military leadershipAgainst this backdrop, the potential for overlap between military events and pro-Bolsonaro campaign events on Independence Day could offer cause for concern. If the president turns his speech in Rio into a campaign opportunity, the military’s planned display of ships, parachutists and hourly rifle salutes could instantly take on ominous political significance.”We should not have such overlap of a national event with a large military participation with a campaign event,” said Casarões. “The military that should be a state force that serves the interests of a government. [The Independence Day events] will allow Bolsonaro to use the military’s symbol … to lend credibility to his presidential candidacy,” he added.Concerned about the possible politicization of Wednesday’s military maneuvers, The sympathy appears to run both ways. The Armed Forces’ leadership has echoed Bolsonaro’s election fraud claims, raising its own doubts about voting security to the Electoral Court.Defense Minister Paulo Sérgio Nogueira de Oliveira last July said the military leadership did not necessarily doubt the electoral system, but said he believed it needed improvement. “We know very well that this electronic system always needs improvement. There is no program immune to an attack, immune to being invaded,” said Nogueira during a hearing at the Commission on Foreign Relations and National Defense.”We are not doubting, or thinking this or that. It is simply a collaborative spirit,” added the minister. Bolsonaro has said that he will accept the results of the upcoming Brazil presidential election “as long they are fair and clean,” in an interview with TV Globo´s Jornal Nacional this month. His campaign and political allies have also dismissed fans’ calls for military intervention. To Ferraz, chatter online and among extremist Bolsonaro supporters of a military intervention in the upcoming election has no basis in reality. “This can’t happen,” he says. Nevertheless, Roseno, the rally organizer, insists that he expects the worst. Falsely convinced that the deck is loaded against his candidate, he predicts that if the Armed Forces don’t intervene to ensure Bolsonaro’s re-election, “the people will” — conjuring exactly the vision of violent insurrection that experts warn the president risks inciting.CNN’s Caitlin Hu in New York contributed to this report.