College football odds: 10 surprise betting trends to know
It’s mid-August which only means one thing – the college football season is ever so close to starting.
This season features various noteworthy storylines across the entire FBS, which should only propel bettors on the gambling front. FOX Sports Research analyzed historical betting data in order to give you the 10 most surprising and “need-to-know” betting trends ahead of the season.
Our data goes back to 2008, encompassing information such as win totals and preseason conference title odds for each FBS team. Here’s a look at what we found after studying data over the past 14 seasons.
1. Underdogs can win Power Five titles
Since 2008, the average preseason odds to win the conference of the eventual Power Five winners is +702 (bet $10 to win $80.20 total).
Last season, only one Power Five preseason favorite won its conference (Alabama Crimson Tide). The Pittsburgh Panthers (+6000), Baylor Bears (+5000), Michigan Wolverines (+2500), and Utah Utes (+600) were huge underdogs to win their respective conferences prior to Week 1.
2. Vegas hit on favorites at a 50% clip
Of the 70 Power Five conference champions since 2008, a dead-even 35 of them were the preseason favorite to win the conference. Looking at Power Five plus Group of Five last season, four of the preseason favorites went on to win their respective league titles – Alabama (-165), the Cincinnati Bearcats, (-225), the UTSA Roadrunners (+300), and the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (+100).
It should be noted that UTSA was tied with the Marshall Thundering Herd and the UAB Blazers at +300 to win Conference USA prior to week one last year.
3. Underdogs can win national titles
Since 2008, the average preseason odds to win the national championship of the eventual title winner is +1415.
There have been five national champions in that span that had odds of +1200 or greater, with the 2010 Auburn Tigers coming in as the largest underdog in that span at +5000 to win the national title prior to the season.
4. Alabama will win the SEC and hit the over on wins
No surprise here as Alabama has been the preseason favorite to win the SEC in 12 of the past 14 seasons, and went on to win the league eight times in that span.
Since 2008, Nick Saban’s squad has hit the over for regular season win totals in nine of the 13 seasons — with their average total coming to 10.4 in that span (excluding 2020 season).
5. Clemson will win the ACC and hit the over on wins
Despite a down year in 2021, expect the Clemson Tigers to bounce back. Since 2008, Clemson has been the preseason favorite to win the ACC in seven of the 14 seasons, and went on to win the league seven times in that span.
In that same time frame, Clemson has hit the over for regular season win totals in nine of the 13 seasons (excluding 2020 season).
6. Texas will hit the under on wins
This one is a bit shocking considering the Texas Longhorns are one of the most storied programs in college football, but the numbers don’t lie. Since 2008, Texas has hit the under for regular season win totals in 10 of the 13 seasons (excluding 2020 season).
7. Heisman winners are usually big underdogs prior to Week 1
Since 2009, there have been four eventual Heisman winners who were not even given odds prior to Week 1; the remaining nine winners in that span had average preseason odds of +3836.
2009: Mark Ingram
2010: Cam Newton
2012: Johnny Manziel
2013: Jameis Winston
8. Underdogs run the MAC
Are you ready for some more MAC-tion madness this year? Over the past six seasons (since 2016), the average preseason odds to win the conference of the eventual winner comes out to +4644.
The preseason favorite has not won the MAC in the past three seasons.
9. Favorites run C-USA
On the flip side, Conference USA has been slightly more steady recently. Over the past six seasons (since 2016), the average preseason odds to win the conference of the eventual winners comes out to +538.
The preseason favorite has won C-USA in the past three seasons.
10. Bet on anyone but Boise State to win the Mountain West
The Boise State Broncos have been the preseason favorite to win the conference every year since 2013, but have won it only three times in that span. The past two MWCs were both +10000 to win the league prior to Week 1 (San Jose State Spartans in 2020 and Utah State Aggies last season).
So are you ready to place some college football bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers.
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