College football odds Week 2: Best bets, why you should take Oklahoma

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

I always say that time flies when you’re having football, and it’s true. We’re already in Week 2 of the college football season. I hope all you bettors and fans out there are having fun so far.

Last week, my Ducks didn’t cover the plus-10 in the first half as I predicted. But Central Michigan covered and so did Wisconsin. So I’m going into this week feeling good about the best bets I have for you.

Let’s dive into my picks for Week 2 (odds via FOX Bet).

Washington State @ No. 19 Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)

Taking Wisconsin here feels like a public sucker wager, but I strongly feel it’s the right decision. 

I was skeptical of Washington State’s offensive outlook heading into 2022 with the addition of Cam Ward at quarterback. Ward was fantastic at Incarnate Word over two seasons (a COVID-19 spring 2021 season went right into a fall 2021 season) before making the jump, along with his Cardinals head coach Eric Morris, to Pullman (Morris is WSU’s offensive coordinator). There are only a few examples of quarterbacks successfully making the FCS-to-FBS jump as drastically as Ward is attempting. And in Washington State’s opening week game against Idaho, Ward and the Cougars’ offense looked about as I expected. – they struggled. 

The Cougars scored 24 points, had only 19 first downs and were under 50% on third downs. While it’s fair to believe an improvement is in store as Ward gets more comfortable in Pullman, this is not the weekend I’d expect that jump.

The Wisconsin Badgers had one of the top defenses in the country last season and allowed zero points and only 243 yards in their opening weekend win against Illinois State. The Cougars are better than the Redbirds, but Ward is not ready for the fast and physical nature of this Badgers defense. I just do not see how the Cougars’ offense will score enough points to cover in this game.

A case can be made that their defense can limit the Badgers to 24-31 points. This means a couple of scores by WSU could potentially cover this number. But I’m not so sure that’s doable. While the Cougars’ defense is feisty, they are an undersized unit. That usually does not fare well against the Badgers. 

This is a matchup where the Wisconsin offensive line and rushing attack should dominate the line of scrimmage and wear on the Cougars. I’ll take Wisconsin to cover this number at home. 

PICK: Wisconsin (-17.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 17.5 points

Mississippi State @ Arizona (11 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1)

I may have underestimated Arizona’s ability to move the ball this season after they put up 38 points against the San Diego State Aztecs in Week 1. Transfer quarterback Jayden de Laura was 22-for-35 passing for 299 yards and four touchdowns. UTEP transfer Jacob Cowing hauled in eight receptions for 152 yards and three touchdowns. The Arizona offensive line, one of the biggest question marks on the team, held up well against what is typically a stout Aztec front. 

In typical Mike Leach fashion, Mississippi State scored 49 points last weekend against Memphis. Will Rogers threw for 450 yards on 49 pass attempts. Despite the Wildcats’ surprise defensive performance against the Aztecs (allowed only 62 yards passing), they are in for a struggle this weekend. Mississippi State tears apart opposing defenses that don’t have playmakers in the back end. Defenses need to have the speed to cover the width of the field, and the Wildcats are just not there at the moment. 

The Bulldogs will score in the high 30s, maybe even into the 40s, in this game. With the improvement in Arizona’s offense, just three scores will be enough to push this total over. I’ll roll with points in the desert here.

PICK: Over 59.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

RELATED: How to bet Alabama-Texas

Kent State @ No. 7 Oklahoma (7 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN+)

Kent State could not cover on the road in a payday game at Washington, losing by 25 last weekend. Now they are facing an Oklahoma team fresh off a 32-point victory against a 2021 bowl team in the UTEP Miners. Not great, Bob.

New Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel was simple and efficient in his first game in Norman. I expect him to get more involved in the offense as the season progresses. The Sooners’ rushing attack produced an expected points added of 15.24, which is absurdly good. Look for more of the same this weekend.

This game is a matchup nightmare on paper. I just fail to see how Kent State keeps this one close.

PICK: Oklahoma (-32.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 32.5 points

Iowa State @ Iowa (4 p.m. ET Saturday, BTN)

I understand why you would want to avoid making a wager on Iowa after the Hawkeyes’ embarrassing offensive performance last weekend against South Dakota State. Three offensive points over 60 minutes is horrendous, even for a team that is always offensively challenged. However, Iowa cannot have a worse offensive performance the entire season, and I expect their offense to bounce back against their rivals this weekend. Iowa has won this game for six consecutive years. Two of the six games fell under the 3.5 points they are giving this weekend.

The reason Iowa wins this matchup is defense. The defense for Iowa scored more points (four on two safeties) than the offense in Week 1. Other than the 2017 game where Iowa State scored 41 points, they have scored 17, 3, 3, 17 and 17 points in the other five losses.

Iowa State is going to struggle on offense as they have had a lot of turnover throughout the roster, including at quarterback and running back. This is not a game I’d expect them have success as they find their way in 2022. Iowa’s defense will swarm and overwhelm them, while Iowa’s offense will muster up more points this weekend. 

PICK: Iowa (-3.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3.5 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.