Covid-19 vaccine mandates are divisive, but they can work. Europe is starting to show how

Up until then, governments around the world had rejected the idea of a universal coronavirus vaccine mandate, opting instead for incentives and other “nudges” to motivate people to get shots. Even in authoritarian states, like China, it is not mandatory policy. Austria’s extraordinary move came just days after it introduced a Austria’s tough new measures were unveiled before the announcement of the But just as lockdowns have become a part of pandemic life, the rapidly emerging view in Europe is that vaccine mandates are not just plausible — they could pay off. Rules in France, Italy and now Austria provide a window into what to expect.Austria has experienced a surge in vaccinations since the beginning of the November, when the government began to signal more stringent measures for workers. In four weeks, vaccination coverage clicked up about 4 percentage points — more than other Western European Union member over the same time, according to the Hale and his colleagues are in the process of adding data on Covid vaccine mandates to their tracker with the aim of answering the big question: Do they work? Of more than 180 countries that the Blavatnik School of Government tracks, Hale said a few stood out for having effective mandates: France, Israel, China and Brazil. Early this year, “What in my opinion was the most remarkable effect is that we experienced a very, very high vaccination rate on the age group from 20 to 30,” Burioni said, which he put at about 84%. “These youngsters are very important in the diffusion of the virus. Because, you know, they have a very intense social life. They’re one of the reasons Italy is in a better position than other countries.”But he said that even with the tough mandates, and his efforts to fight anti-vaccine disinformation as part of Italy’s Covid strategy, there remains a small, loud minority of the population who are dead-set against vaccinations, and seemingly nothing will change their mind. That group, while small, still poses a big problem for Italy in reaching its ultimate goal of vaccinating 90% of the eligible population, Burioni added.”I can’t believe somebody is refusing this after 150,000 deaths in Italy — everybody here has a relative, a friend who died of Covid. I encounter people in the intensive care unit with Covid who still say that they wouldn’t get the shot. They don’t regret it, they say ‘Oh no, please don’t vaccinate me.'”While the politicization of Covid vaccines, particularly by populist groups in Europe, has made many governments reluctant to enforce mandates on their populations, the risk of harsh lockdowns canceling another chance at a Christmas recovery season has led many to reassess. As cases in The ratcheting of restrictions on the unvaccinated is part of a wider movement toward vaccine mandates globally, Thomas Hale says. “Austria’s a very dramatic example. But it’s very much part of a bigger trend.”There are counterexamples where mandates’ effectiveness have been less clear. In the United States, vaccine rules for federal workers, members of the military and people working in healthcare settings, have gone some way to increase uptake among those groups, but it is hard to say whether they’ve made a significant impact on the general population, Hale says. The Biden administration has also tried to require private companies employing more than 100 people to be fully vaccinated or undergo regular testing, but the measure is being tied up in the courts.But as countries aim to use lockdowns more judiciously, or avoid them entirely, Hale believes we’ll continue to see more leaders moving toward mandates. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in mid-November that the definition of “fully vaccinated” would have to shift at some point to account for booster shots. And, on Monday, the United Kingdom announced it would offer booster vaccines to all adults — and cut the gap between second and third doses from six months to three — in an effort to slow the spread of Omicron. “I think they [mandates] do work. I think they especially motivate people who are not vaccine adverse, but who are kind of vaccine lazy, a little bit hesitant. And in some countries, that’s a big chunk of the population,” Hale said, pointing again to France.”But if you’re facing people who are really against vaccination, then it’s not as clear to me that those measures will remove that barrier.”Eliza Mackintosh wrote and reported from London. Jo Shelley and Salma Abdelaziz in Vienna, Nina Avramova, Stephanie Halasz, Sarah Dean and Chris Liakos in London, and Inke Kappeler in Berlin contributed to this report.