NFL odds: Bet on the Bills and other best Week 2 preseason wagers
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
NFL preseason Week 1 did not go as planned.
And when I say “as planned,” of course that means as I predicted. Of the 16 games, 13 went over the combined point total, and some of the preseason coaching trends failed us. However, the best wager in all of sports — the Baltimore Ravens — continued to cash in, so I’m betting on them to do the same this week.
Other than the Ravens, who else do I like to do some damage against the spread in Week 2 of the preseason?
Let’s dive into my best bets for this second exhibition week of 2022.
Thursday
Bears @ Seahawks (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Seattle coach Pete Carroll entered last weekend 36-20 against the spread (ATS) in the preseason. However, the Seahawks did not cover in the seven point loss to the Steelers last weekend. They allowed 32 points, and if I know anything, I know Carroll has been riding the defense hard this week to improve and play better.
I told you last week that defensive coaches dominate the preseason, so I believe the Seahawks will play better at home and get back on track with Pete Carroll’s preseason ATS trends.
Ultimately, I’m basing this wager on that trend alone.
PICK: Seahawks (-3.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3.5 points
Saturday
Broncos @ Bills (1 p.m. ET, NFLN)
Bills head coach Sean McDermott is now 11-5 ATS in the preseason after the Bills scored 17 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Colts in week one of the NFL preseason. There could not be a better example of why defensive coaches tend to dominate covering the spread in the preseason. For whatever reason, defensive-minded coaches seem way more interested in winning preseason games. Offensive coaches, on the other hand, are wired differently. They just want to work out specific kinks in their offenses, and the actual results of the game are not as important.
So I’ll take the Bills for these reasons. Buffalo has a coach that historically dominates during the preseason.
So expect for Buffalo to play to the final whistle.
PICK: Bills (+0.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 0.5 points (or win outright)
Commanders @ Chiefs (4 p.m. ET, NFLN)
I’m taking the Chiefs to cover the first half of this game.
The last three preseason games where Patrick Mahomes has run the offense for at least one drive, the Chiefs have controlled the first half. Going back to Week 2 of the preseason last year, the Chiefs were up 10-0 against the Cardinals, with Mahomes having 18 pass attempts. The Chiefs followed that up with a 14-point lead going into halftime against the Vikings in their final preseason game of 2021, a game where Mahomes completed eight of nine attempts. Lastly, the Chiefs were up 14-0 against the Bears last weekend and Showtime Mahomes had a full 12- play drive to start the game.
Why is Mahomes playing important? It signals to the team that this game is for real. Also, if Mahomes is playing, so are the rest of the starters. Andy Reid and staff will game-plan for the matchup because they want their starters to have success.
So I’ll take the Chiefs to cover the first half against the Commanders, who looked sluggish early in their first game against the Panthers. Also, with Washington not covering that game, Ron Rivera’s record ATS in the preseason falls under that 50% mark.
PICK: Chiefs to cover first half of the game
Sunday
Ravens @ Cardinals (8 p.m. ET, FOX)
The Baltimore Ravens have won an NFL-record 21 straight preseason games, covering 18 of those 21 wins. In Week 1, the Ravens quarterbacks were dialed-in. Tyler Huntley went 16-of-18, Anthony Brown completed 10-of-15 and Brett Hundley finished 2-for-2. The easy explanation for Baltimore’s preseason success is that defenses do not have time to prepare for the Ravens’ offense, and if they aren’t seeing them in the regular season, they have even less incentive to bother preparing their defense for this game.
The coaches have the defenders read their keys and play fast, with little time in camp to game-plan this offense. The Ravens also play a clean style of ball under John Harbaugh. They rarely turn it over in the preseason, and they don’t make special teams mistakes like other squads might with their backups this time of the year.
I’m taking the Ravens on the money line again this weekend against the Cardinals.
PICK: Ravens money line (bet $10 to win $13.60 at FOX Bet) to win outright
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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