NFL odds: Can the Dallas Cowboys run the table?

When the season began, no one would’ve thought that the Dallas Cowboys would be road favorites against the Green Bay Packers in the NFL Week 10 odds market.

But that’s where we are now, showing how much fortunes have changed over the past nine weeks. The Cowboys are not only favorites, but growing ones for Sunday’s national game on FOX and the FOX Sports app.

What does that say about Dallas’ fortunes this week and for the rest of the season? Rex Beyers, a longtime oddsmaker and now head of wagering for PlayUp USA, as wells FOX Bet senior trading operations manager Dylan Brossman offered insights on where the Cowboys are now and how the rest of the season might shake down.

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When NFL Week 10 opening odds hit betting boards Sunday night, the Cowboys were 3.5-point favorites against the Packers. Which just goes to show how far Aaron Rodgers — the reigning NFL MVP — and his teammates have fallen.

But early bettors — likely sharp players — were happy to lay the 3.5 points and more with the Cowboys. By Monday, Dallas was a consensus 5-point favorite, including at PlayUp, for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. That said, as bad as Green Bay has been, Beyers feels this is an overreaction by bettors.

“Dallas is painted at -5 as of right now almost everywhere. I initially made the game much cheaper, and I do like Green Bay a good deal,” Beyers said. “Dallas is not necessarily a great team. The Cowboys rank notches below the best teams and even 1.5 or two points worse on a neutral field than San Francisco.

“But Green Bay has been ravaged by injuries, as bad as anyone except for maybe the Chargers. The Packers were largely getting propped up at the betting window because they’ve got the most talented QB in the history of the league.”

However, the Packers are now 3-6 straight up (SU) and 3-6 against the spread (ATS). Rodgers & Co. are on a stunning five-game SU losing streak and on a 1-5 ATS slide. So in Beyers’ estimation, the Cowboys now being 5-point favorites — and even 5.5 at some sportsbooks — is less a product of Dallas (6-2 SU and ATS) being good than of the Packers being totally out of sorts.

“Rodgers has been capable of overcoming many deficiencies with his offense and coaching for a long time,” Beyers said. “Given that the Brewers won a game more recently than the Packers, it’s obviously been a troubling time. But the pendulum has finally swung too much against them, and there certainly seems to be value on Green Bay, from how I see it.”

Line going higher?

Brossman thinks the Cowboys-Packers line is not done going up.

“It does feel weird seeing Green Bay as a 5-point home underdog, but I would not be surprised if this moves more and goes off closer to Dallas -6,” Brossman said. “The Packers have proven they can’t be trusted at home this year, losing to the Jets and having lost five straight overall. Conversely, Dallas is rolling offensively and has one of the league’s best defenses.

“Last week, the Packers scored a total of nine points against Detroit’s defense, which ranks 31st in total points given up. Dallas -5 feels like the safe pick.”

Fast-forward

Beyers handicapped the rest of Dallas’ schedule. Over the Cowboys final eight games, he’d have them favored five times. He’s forecasting at least three more losses for the Cowboys, perhaps four.

“Assuming [good] health for everyone on Dallas and their opponents the rest of the way, I make the Cowboys a small ‘dog next week in Minneapolis,” Beyers said. “Then a solid favorite versus the Giants, Colts and Texans.”

The Cowboys are at home for all three of those games.

“Then they’re a small favorite in Jacksonville, close to a pick ‘em vs. Philly at home, and a small ‘dog in Nashville, assuming the Titans QB (Ryan Tannehill) is healthy,” Beyers said.

In the regular-season finale at Washington, Beyers said the Cowboys would be solid favorites at this point. But keep in mind, Dallas could be resting players for the postseason in that Jan. 8 contest.

“I’m thinking 11-6 is the most likely outcome, with 12-5 still in play, as well,” Beyers said. “But a lot of things can happen between now and early January.”

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At FOX Bet, Brossman has the Cowboys favored in six of their final eight games. He makes Dallas a 3-point road ‘dog at Minnesota in Week 11 and a 1.5-point home pup to the Eagles on Christmas Eve.

Brossman said he thinks Dallas will go 7-2 SU in that stretch to finish a robust 13-4 SU.

“I’ve assumed a win at home versus Philly and a Week 18 loss to Washington, which could very easily be reversed, but gets them to 13-4 nonetheless,” Brossman said.

Cowboys’ Super Bowl odds

Dallas is a consensus +1300 in odds to win the Super Bowl. That puts the Cowboys behind the Buffalo Bills (+300), Philadelphia Eagles (+500), Kansas City Chiefs (+530) and San Francisco 49ers (+1200). And, depending on where you bet, the Cowboys might also trail the Baltimore Ravens (+1400 at FOX Bet).

At FOX Bet, the Cowboys are a bit shorter price at +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total), tied for the fourth choice with the 49ers. That’s after Dallas opened Super Bowl futures odds at +1800 and lengthened to +4000 after Dak Prescott suffered a thumb injury in the season opener. The Pokes weathered Prescott’s five-game absence, going 4-1 SU and ATS.

“After the Cowboys proved they could win without elite QB play, they began to shorten week to week,” Brossman said. “The past four weeks have seen their Super Bowl [odds] go from +2000 to +1800 to +1400 to their current +1000 price.”

A Dallas Super Bowl win is good behind the FOX Bet counter, with the book seeing far more action on the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs. And Brossman said he thinks the Cowboys could make it interesting, even if the Eagles win the NFC East and Dallas is a wild card.

“I absolutely believe the Cowboys can make a run to the Super Bowl, regardless of their playoff seed,” Brossman said. “Outside of Philadelphia, I would put Dallas firmly in the second tier of NFC contenders, alongside San Fran and Minnesota. If Dallas is able to sign and implement Odell Beckham Jr. into its offense, watch out for the Cowboys this postseason.”

Brossman noted Dallas is the favorite on the prop bet of OBJ’s landing spot at +200.

Cowboys counterpoint

On the flip side, Beyers reiterated that he’s not really sold on Dallas. Even if the Cowboys finish 12-5 or better in the regular season, he’s not seeing a Prescott-led run through the postseason.

“I don’t consider Dallas to be in the upper echelon of teams, or one that is capable of winning three or most likely four games in a row against playoff-caliber foes,” Beyers said. “I would most likely deal them [at longer odds] than the market in odds to win the NFC and Super Bowl pools if I were booking it with my own money.”

That might be something for optimistic Cowboys bettors to keep in mind, perhaps as early as this weekend at Lambeau Field.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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