NFL odds Week 1: How to bet Saints-Falcons, pick
One of the NFL‘s most even rivalries will resume Sunday when the New Orleans Saints play at the Atlanta Falcons in a NFC South Division showdown.
The Falcons lead the Saints in the all-time series 54-52, thanks to winning seven of the past nine contests since late in the 2017 season.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Saints-Falcons game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):
RELATED: NFL Week 1 lines, odds
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Point spread: Saints -5.5 (Saints favored to win by more than 5.5 points, otherwise Falcons cover)
Moneyline: Saints -250 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18 total); Falcons +200 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Total scoring over/under: 43 points scored by both teams combined
The Saints have won four straight road matchups against the Falcons.
New Orleans allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 43.5% of Red Zone trips, the lowest in the NFL last season.
Jameis Winston, the No. 1 draft pick in 2015, has recovered from his season-ending torn ACL in Week 8 in 2021. New Orleans was 5-2 after winning the game Winston was injured, then went 4-6 without him.
The Falcons recorded only 18 sacks in 2021, the fewest in the NFL and 11 fewer than the next-lowest team.
Atlanta has lost its past four season openers
By winning Sunday, the Falcons will be above .500 for the first time since they finished the 2017 season with a 10-6 record.
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Pick by FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:
I’m not laying 5.5 with the Saints on the road. That is crazy. They just lost a Hall of Fame coach and quarterback, a left tackle and a few players off an underrated 2021 defense.
Their new coach was unsuccessful in his first NFL coaching stint, and turnover-prone Jameis Winston guides them. It’s too early in the season to lay money on a team that I have so many questions about.
So my play for this game is looking to fade Falcons’ quarterback Marcus Mariota. His passing yards prop is set to 218.5, which appears like a low number, but based on the last three years of Mariota starts, the number might be high.
In Mariota’s last three starting seasons in Tennessee, 2017-2019, he did not average over 218.5 passing yards. In his final two seasons (2018-19), he didn’t even come close to averaging 200 passing yards. The Saints return the bulk of their tough defense from 2021, and the Falcons have one legitimate passing threat at the receiver position. Mariota is going to struggle. Fade him.
PICK: Mariota under 218.5 passing yards
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