Packers fantasy football outlook: It’s a running back quandary vs. 49ers

The Green Bay Packers are thin at the running back spot and an upcoming Thursday night game leaves little time for them to recover.

Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon will miss the game after being placed on the COVID-19 reserve list while Aaron Jones, who is nursing a calf injury, is questionable to return against the San Francisco 49ers.

Enter Tyler Ervin for the Packers. And maybe for your fantasy team.

Obviously, Ervin’s role will be reduced if Jones does not play but maybe the Packers will want to try to piece it together for one game as to not rush Jones back for a Thursday game.

(Note: The 49ers closed their facility Wednesday due to a positive COVID-19 test. If the game is to be moved, Williams could be back in action. Not to mention it gives Jones more time to heal. We’ll update this story as it warrants.)

With all that in mind, who should you start? Who should you avoid? We are here to help.

Players are graded on a 1-5 scale of football emojis, from “don’t even think about starting him” (?) to “you’re a fool if you bench this guy”(?????).

Here’s how Week 9 shakes out:

GREEN BAY PACKERS

QB Aaron Rodgers: ?????

Even when Rodgers does not have a great game for his standards, he can still put up numbers in fantasy. His 291 passing yards and three touchdowns equated to 22.54 fantasy points – and did that in spite of the Minnesota Vikings chewing up big chunks of time of possession. The 49ers have the 11th-ranked defense against quarterbacks so far this season but they just allowed four touchdowns to Russell Wilson last week so Rodgers could be able to feast.

WR Davante Adams: ?????

San Francisco also gives up the 11th-fewest amount of fantasy points to wide receivers but if you let that stop you from playing Adams then you should not be playing fantasy football. Adams is still Rodgers’ favorite target and even though his 53 receiving yards against Minnesota were not eye-popping, he still had seven catches and three touchdowns.

RB Aaron Jones: ????

IF Aaron Jones is good to go on Thursday then play him – although realize he likely won’t be 100% and might not pile up a ton of rushing yards against Fred Warner and the 49ers stingy front seven. Only the Ravens are better against running backs, and just slightly, in fantasy points per game. Jones will still be a target in the passing game which makes him a bit more valuable in PPR leagues. Throw in a possible short touchdown run and Jones should be in your starting lineup if he plays, albeit with some risk.

RB Tyler Ervin: ??

Starting Ervin is of course entirely dependent on Jones’ status. If Jones does not play and you need a running back, well, start Ervin and hope for the best. Ervin has all of four rushes this season – and three came in Week 1. In his career, which spans 40 games since 2016, he has all of 10 carries. He might get 10 in this game if Jones is out. In PPR leagues, Ervin has more value and that’s where he could inflate his points a bit. He has six receptions this season, but would be Rodgers’ main option at running back to throw to. Well, someone has to line up in the backfield is Jones is out.

RB Dexter Williams: ?

The former sixth-round pick most assuredly will be elevated from the practice squad if Jones can’t go. He had five carries for 11 yards in 2019 and has never caught a pass in the NFL (and had just 22 receptions in 35 games at Notre Dame). Just how desperate are you?

WR Allen Lazard: ???

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur told reporters this week that Lazard is “really close” to a return. It could just be coach speak and Green Bay may not want to rush back Lazard after a core injury, so watch his status. He could be worthy of a start as no No. 2 wideout has emerged in his absence.

TE Robert Tonyan: ???

Unless you have one of the premier tight ends like Travis Kelce or Darren Waller (George Kittle is out with a broken foot), then Tonyan is a decent play. He has emerged as a reliable tight end and Rodgers feeds him the ball. After a couple of low-output games, he caught five balls for a team-leading 79 receiving yards against Minnesota last week. However, San Francisco has allowed just one touchdown to a tight end this season.

D/ST Packers: ??

Green Bay has been pretty good against opposing quarterbacks, with the 12th-lowest average points per game. San Francisco will be starting Nick Mullens, who was good in his first start (at New York Giants), bad in his second (vs. Philadelphia) and good after coming in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo last week. The Packers could have some success here. But we’ve also seen Green Bay’s run defense – and how San Francisco ran all over the Packers last year – so we’d advise against a start here, even against a depleted 49ers team.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

QB Nick Mullens: ??

Hey, quarterbacks out of Southern Miss have a pretty good success record at Lambeau Field. Just saying. Kidding aside, there are just too many good quarterbacks in the NFL to start Mullens. He put up 238 yards and two touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks but it all came in garbage time. Maybe he will put up some garbage time stats against the Packers on Thursday but even then there are better options out there.

RB JaMycal Hasty: ????

Hasty has gotten more opportunities in recent weeks for San Francisco. He rushed for 29 yards and a touchdown against Seattle and in the previous game against the New England Patriots he finished with 57 rushing yards and a catch for 16 yards. With Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Jeff Wilson out for the 49ers, Hasty is a legitimate option, especially against the Packers run defense. Hasty’s previous production might not warrant four footballs; this is very much a speculative play.

RB Jerrick McKinnon: ??

If you’re in a bind with injuries and bye weeks, then McKinnon is an option. He rushed three times for -1 yards and a score against the Seahawks and had the same rushing yardage stat line the week prior in New England, which is … not good. However, he caught four passes for 40 yards in the Seattle game, so he is a decent option in PPR leagues.

WR Brandon Aiyuk: ????

Aiyuk has been coming on lately. He had eight catches for 91 yards and a touchdown last week and six receptions for 115 yards against the Patriots in Week 7. In a game where Kittle is out and the rest 49er receivers are OK, Aiyuk could see a good share of targets. He’s also rushed four times this season (although not since Week 3) and has two touchdowns.

TE Ross Dwelley: ?

With Kittle out there is a chance Dwelley has a productive day against Green Bay. He caught a touchdown pass against Seattle after Kittle left with his injury so Mullens could look for him more on Thursday.