Three true outcomes could be key when Brewers, Cubs meet

There’s been a lot of talk in recent years about the three true outcomes in baseball – walks, strikeouts and home runs.

All three could be prevalent when the Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs in a three-game series this weekend.

The Brewers and Cubs rank second and third, respectively, in the majors in percentage of walks per plate appearance. Milwaukee is at 9.8% and the Cubs 9.7%. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at the top at 10.0%, but it’s the Brewers who lead the National League in average pitches seen per game (155.9).

The first six games played between the two teams – which have been split – bare that out. Both clubs have walked 30 times in the six matchups thus far.

In addition, the Brewers have hit 11 home runs in the six contests and the Cubs have 10. Again, that shouldn’t come as a surprise as Milwaukee is second in the NL in homers (173) this season and the Chicago third (160).

The two teams also rank high in OPS – on-base percentage plus slugging percentage – with the Cubs’ .787 ranking third in the NL and the Brewers’ .779 just behind in fourth.

Christian Yelich should help increase that number. He has an .841 slugging percentage at Miller Park this season. Only Colorado’s Charlie Blackmon (.848) has a higher slugging percentage in his home park and only one other player in the majors is over .700 (the Dodgers’ Clay Bellinger, .724).

We did say three outcomes, so what about strikeouts? Well, the Brewers’ bullpen is second in the NL in strikeout rate at 26.2%. Sorry, Cubs, maybe only two outcomes for you as Chicago is second-to-last at 22.3%.

Other notes:

— Since July 1, Keston Hiura leads the NL in batting average at .382 and is second in slugging percentage (.737). Yelich is fifth in average (.369) while the Cubs’ Anthony Rizzo is third (.379).

— Chicago starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks has a 1.89 ERA at Wrigley Field this season but 5.44 on the road, which is the fifth-worst home/road differential in the NL (-3.55). Reminder: this series is being played at Miller Park.

— Milwaukee starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez has five career starts of 5+ innings without allowing a run against the Cubs. Among active pitchers, only St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright has more such starts.

Statistics courtesy Sportradar and Inside Edge