Why is Pelosi’s potential trip to Taiwan fueling tensions?

Though the California Democrat has so far declined to confirm the trip publicly, In recent years, Taiwan has received a flurry of visits by US delegations, consisting of sitting and retired officials and lawmakers. That has drawn angry responses from China, including sending warplanes into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense identification zone.But Pelosi’s political stature makes her potential visit all the more provocative to Beijing.”Pelosi is the third public official in the line of succession after the President and Vice President, I think the Chinese take that very seriously,” said Susan L. Shirk, chair of the 21st Century China Center at UC San Diego.”So she is a very important figure in American politics. It’s different from your ordinary member of Congress.”Pelosi is a longstanding critic of the Chinese Communist Party. She has denounced Beijing’s human rights record, and met with pro-democracy dissidents and China’s authoritarian turn under Xi’s leadership and plummeting relations with Washington have pulled Taiwan closer into the orbit of the US. This has infuriated Beijing, which has accused Washington of “playing the Taiwan card” to contain China’s rise.The US, meanwhile, has stepped up its engagement with Taiwan, approving arms sales and sending delegations to the island. Since the Taiwan Travel Act was signed into law by “It’s a very tense time in Chinese domestic politics,” Shirk said. “(Xi) himself and many other members of the elite in China would view the Pelosi visit as a humiliation of Xi Jinping (and) his leadership. And that means that he will feel compelled to react in a way to demonstrate his strength.”While the politically sensitive timing could trigger a stronger response from Beijing, some experts believe it could also mean the Communist Party would want to ensure stability and prevent things from getting out of control.”Honestly, this isn’t a good time for Xi Jinping to provoke a military conflict right before the 20th party congress. It’s in Xi Jinping’s interest to manage this rationally and not instigate a crisis on top of all the other crises he has to deal with,” Thompson said, citing China’s slowing economy, deepening real estate crisis, rising unemployment, and constant struggle to curb sporadic outbreaks under its zero-Covid policy.How will China react?China has not specified what “forceful measures” it is planning to take, but some Chinese analysts say Beijing’s reaction could involve a military component.”China will respond with unprecedented countermeasures — the strongest it has ever taken since the Taiwan Strait crises,” said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at China’s Renmin University.In private, Biden administration officials have expressed concern that China could seek to declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan to upend the possible trip, a US official told CNN.National security officials are quietly working to convince Pelosi of the risks her potential trip to Taiwan could pose, while the Pentagon is developing a security plan to use ships and aircraft to keep her safe should she decide to go ahead.But the constant worry among US officials is that miscalculations or inadvertent incidents or accidents could occur if China and the US significantly increase their air and maritime operations in the region.The US does not expect direct hostile action from Beijing during a potential visit by Pelosi. At least five Defense officials described this as a very remote possibility and said the Pentagon wants to see the public rhetoric lowered.What has Taiwan said about Pelosi’s potential trip?Taiwan has made few comments about the situation. When Pelosi’s potential visit was first reported by the Financial Times last week, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it had “received no information” about the visit.During a regular news briefing on Thursday, a ministry spokeswoman reiterated it had not received any definite information on whether Pelosi would be visiting the island and had “no further comment” on the matter.”Inviting members of the US Congress to visit Taiwan has long been a focus of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan and our Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States,” spokeswoman Joanne Ou said.Neither President Tsai Ing-wen nor the presidential office have issued statements on Pelosi’s potential trip.On Wednesday, Taiwan’s Premier Su Tseng-chang said the island welcomes any friendly guests from overseas. “We are very grateful to Speaker Pelosi for her strong support and kindness towards Taiwan over the years,” he said.Though international media is closely watching events, the escalating tension barely made headline news in Taiwan this week. Taiwan’s media has mostly focused on upcoming local elections and Taiwanese military drills.Previously, Taiwanese officials have publicly welcomed visits by US delegations, seeing them as a sign of support from Washington.